Super El Niño Could Disproportionately Impact Women Across Africa, CARE International Warns

The anticipated super El Niño is expected to bring severe weather conditions across East and Southern Africa, raising concerns about food security, healthcare, and livelihoods. According to CARE International, women and girls are likely to face the greatest burden as communities prepare for intensified floods, prolonged droughts, and shrinking humanitarian support.

Experts say the combination of climate change, extreme weather, and significant reductions in international aid could leave millions of vulnerable people without the resources they need. Women, who often shoulder primary caregiving responsibilities and play central roles in food production, may experience the greatest challenges during the unfolding crisis.

What Is a Super El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These temperature shifts influence global weather patterns, bringing unusually heavy rainfall to some regions while causing severe droughts in others.

A super El Niño refers to an exceptionally strong El Niño event. Scientists expect this year's episode to be particularly intense, with climate change amplifying many of its effects. The result could be more destructive floods, extended dry spells, crop failures, and increasing humanitarian needs across multiple countries.

Women Expected to Face the Greatest Challenges

Walter Mwasaa, Regional Director for CARE International in East and Southern Africa, has warned that women are likely to bear the heaviest consequences of the approaching climate event.

According to CARE, women often carry the responsibility of collecting water, preparing food, caring for children, elderly family members, and managing households. During climate disasters, these responsibilities become even more demanding.

Women also face increased health risks during floods and droughts, particularly pregnant women who require proper nutrition, clean water, and reliable healthcare services. When these services become disrupted by disasters, maternal and infant health can deteriorate rapidly.

CARE emphasizes that climate emergencies should also be viewed as women's health issues because they directly affect nutrition, reproductive health, and access to medical care.

Different Regions Face Different Threats

The expected impacts of the super El Niño will vary across East and Southern Africa.

Countries including Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Somalia are forecast to experience heavier than normal rainfall. Excessive rainfall increases the likelihood of flooding, displacement, disease outbreaks, and infrastructure damage.

Meanwhile, southern countries such as Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar are expected to face prolonged drought conditions. Reduced rainfall threatens agricultural production, livestock, water supplies, and household incomes.

For communities already experiencing climate stress, another severe weather event could deepen existing humanitarian challenges.

Climate Change Is Increasing the Risks

Although El Niño is a natural climate cycle, researchers say human-driven climate change is making many extreme weather events more severe.

Higher global temperatures contribute to stronger rainfall events, longer heatwaves, and more intense drought conditions. These combined pressures make it increasingly difficult for vulnerable communities to recover before the next disaster strikes.

Agriculture remains especially vulnerable. Millions of smallholder farmers depend on predictable seasonal rainfall to grow crops and support their families. Crop failures caused by drought or flooding can quickly lead to food shortages and economic hardship.

Women and Girls Often Experience Long-Term Consequences

Research continues to show that climate disasters affect women and girls differently than men.

Several studies have found that climate-related emergencies can contribute to:

• Increased food insecurity
• Higher maternal health risks
• Reduced access to healthcare
• Interrupted education for girls
• Longer journeys to collect water
• Greater caregiving responsibilities
• Increased vulnerability to early marriage and gender inequality in some affected regions

When families face financial hardship, available resources are often prioritized for immediate survival, leaving women and girls with fewer educational and economic opportunities.

Healthcare disruptions can also become life-threatening for pregnant women who require regular medical care and nutritional support.

Humanitarian Aid Cuts Are Adding Pressure

Alongside climate concerns, CARE International says foreign aid reductions have significantly affected humanitarian programs across East and Southern Africa.

The organization reports substantial funding declines over recent years, forcing reductions in health, nutrition, and community development initiatives.

According to CARE, several health and nutrition centers have closed in Somalia, where millions of children are already experiencing acute malnutrition. Healthcare workers have reported increasing numbers of pregnant women arriving at remaining facilities after traveling long distances without sufficient food or water.

Aid reductions also limit programs designed to improve women's economic independence through education, farming support, and market access.

Moving Beyond Emergency Relief

CARE says long-term resilience requires more than responding to disasters after they occur.

The organization advocates for investments that help communities become more self-sufficient through improved farming practices, climate-resilient agriculture, education, and better access to local and international markets.

However, recurring climate emergencies often force humanitarian organizations to redirect resources toward immediate disaster response instead of long-term development projects.

Balancing emergency assistance with sustainable development remains one of the largest challenges facing humanitarian organizations across the region.

Regional Cooperation Offers Hope

Despite growing challenges, there are encouraging signs of increased cooperation among African nations.

Governments across the continent have strengthened collaboration on issues including public health emergencies and food security. Regional partnerships aimed at improving agricultural resilience and disaster preparedness may help reduce the long-term impacts of future climate events.

Development experts believe locally led solutions, supported by international partnerships, will play an increasingly important role in building resilience against climate change.

Looking Ahead

The expected super El Niño serves as another reminder of how climate events can deepen existing social and economic inequalities. Women and girls often experience the greatest challenges during humanitarian crises due to caregiving responsibilities, healthcare needs, and unequal access to resources.

As humanitarian organizations prepare for severe weather across East and Southern Africa, experts stress that protecting vulnerable populations will require coordinated action from governments, aid agencies, donors, and local communities.

Strengthening healthcare systems, investing in climate adaptation, supporting sustainable agriculture, and ensuring continued humanitarian assistance will all be essential to reducing the impact of this year's expected climate event.

Source

• The Independent, published July 12, 2026.
• CARE International statements and humanitarian updates referenced within the original report.

Disclaimer

This article is a rewritten and summarized version of publicly reported information for educational and informational purposes only. It does not replace official guidance from governments, humanitarian organizations, climate agencies, or healthcare professionals. Climate forecasts and humanitarian conditions may change as new information becomes available.