Fertility Rates in England and Wales Hit Record Low: Where Are the Fewest Babies Being Born?
London and several university cities are among the areas with the lowest fertility rates, while parts of northern England record some of the highest rates.
Fertility rates across England and Wales have fallen to a new record low, with newly released figures revealing striking differences between local areas.
According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the overall fertility rate in England and Wales fell from 1.41 children per woman in 2024 to 1.39 in 2025. The latest figure is the lowest recorded level in the current statistical series and is significantly below the approximate 2.1 children per woman generally considered necessary for a population to replace itself over the long term without migration.
The figures also highlight a strong geographical divide. Some of the lowest fertility rates are concentrated in London and cities with large student and university populations, while several areas in northern England and other parts of the country have considerably higher rates.
London records some of the lowest fertility rates
The City of London recorded the lowest fertility rate in England and Wales in 2025, at just 0.37 children per woman.
The figure is an extreme outlier compared with the national average and reflects the distinctive demographic characteristics of the City, which has a relatively small residential population and a large concentration of businesses and workers.
Cambridge recorded the next lowest rate, at 0.87 children per woman. The London boroughs of Islington and Westminster followed, both recording a rate of 0.90.
Other areas with particularly low fertility rates included:
- Brighton and Hove: 0.95
- Southwark: 0.97
- Norwich: 0.98
- Exeter: 1.01
- Oxford: 1.01
- York: 1.01
- Camden: 1.01
- Hammersmith and Fulham: 1.01
The concentration of low fertility rates in major cities is notable. Twelve of the 25 local authorities with the lowest fertility rates in 2025 were located in London.
University cities also feature prominently in the figures. Cambridge, Oxford, Exeter, Norwich and York all recorded rates close to or below one child per woman.
Why are fertility rates lower in major cities?
There is no single explanation for why fertility rates vary so significantly between different parts of England and Wales.
Large cities tend to have younger adult populations, including substantial numbers of students and young professionals. People living in these areas may also be more likely to delay starting a family.
Housing costs, childcare expenses, employment patterns and the age at which people enter long-term relationships can all influence decisions about having children.
The figures should therefore not be interpreted as meaning that women in particular cities will necessarily have fewer children over their entire lives. The ONS measure is a period fertility measure, meaning it describes fertility patterns during a particular year.
Northern areas record some of the highest rates
At the other end of the scale, several areas recorded fertility rates considerably above the national average.
Pendle in Lancashire and Luton in Bedfordshire shared the highest fertility rate in 2025, at 1.93 children per woman.
They were followed by:
- Oldham: 1.87
- Bradford: 1.84
- Barking and Dagenham: 1.83
The difference between these areas and the lowest-ranking local authorities is substantial.
Barking and Dagenham is particularly interesting because it is in London, demonstrating that fertility patterns can vary significantly even within the capital.
Local fertility rates can be influenced by the age structure of a population, household composition, migration patterns and socioeconomic circumstances. Comparing individual local authorities therefore requires some caution.
Number of babies born also falls
The decline in fertility rates is reflected in the overall number of births.
There were 585,396 live births in England and Wales in 2025, compared with 594,677 in 2024.
The latest total was the lowest number of live births recorded since 1977.
Births fell across every region of England. The largest percentage decline was recorded in the West Midlands, where births fell by 3.1 per cent. The smallest reduction occurred in the North East, where births fell by 0.3 per cent.
The combination of fewer births and a fertility rate below the long-term replacement level has important implications for the future age structure of the population.
However, population change is not determined by births alone. Migration and mortality also have major effects on the size and composition of the population.
Parents are becoming older
Another long-term trend highlighted by the ONS figures is the increasing age of parents.
The provisional standardised mean age of mothers in 2025 was 31.1 years, up slightly from 31.0 in 2024.
For fathers, the average age increased from 33.9 to 34.0 years.
The longer-term change is much more pronounced. In 1975, mothers were on average 26.4 years old, while fathers had an average age of 29.5 years.
The figures illustrate how family formation has changed over several decades.
People are generally having children later than previous generations, and this can affect the number of children they ultimately have. Delayed parenthood may also interact with factors such as housing affordability, career progression, relationship patterns and access to childcare.
International background of mothers is also changing
The ONS data shows another significant demographic trend.
The proportion of births where the mother was born outside the UK has increased steadily over the past two decades.
In 2005, 20.8 per cent of births were to mothers born outside the UK. That figure rose to 27.5 per cent in 2015 and reached 34.6 per cent in 2025.
India was the most common country of birth for non-UK-born mothers in 2025, retaining the top position for the fourth consecutive year. Pakistan, Nigeria and Romania followed.
At the same time, 56.4 per cent of births in 2025 were to parents who were both born in the UK. This compares with 62.7 per cent in 2015.
These figures demonstrate how the composition of families in England and Wales has changed alongside broader demographic and migration trends.
Wales also shows significant regional differences
Wales recorded lower fertility levels in many areas, although there were considerable differences between local authorities.
Swansea had the lowest fertility rate in Wales in 2025, at 1.18 children per woman.
The highest rates were recorded in Carmarthenshire, the Isle of Anglesey and Newport, each with a rate of 1.48 children per woman.
The Welsh figures again show that national averages can conceal substantial differences between individual communities.
What does the record low mean for England and Wales?
The fall in fertility is part of a much broader demographic change affecting many developed countries.
A fertility rate of 1.39 is well below the approximate replacement level of 2.1. If such patterns persist, countries can experience an ageing population and a smaller proportion of people in younger age groups.
That can have consequences for the workforce, demand for schools and childcare, healthcare requirements, housing and public services.
However, the latest figures do not mean that the population of England and Wales will automatically shrink. Migration can offset some or all of the difference between births and deaths, while changes in life expectancy can also affect population growth.
The most striking message from the latest data is therefore not simply that fewer babies are being born. It is that where people live, when they start families and the changing age and background of parents are reshaping the demographic picture of England and Wales.
Major urban centres and university cities continue to record some of the lowest fertility rates, while several areas outside the largest cities have considerably higher levels. At the national level, meanwhile, the downward trend has pushed fertility to a new record low.
Source
Office for National Statistics (ONS), Births in England and Wales: 2025.
Disclaimer
The figures and interpretations are provided for general information and should not be treated as demographic, financial, medical or policy advice. Fertility rates are statistical measures and do not predict the number of children an individual woman will have during her lifetime. Local authority figures can also be affected by differences in population size, age structure and other demographic characteristics.